Smart Choice

“Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions” is a book by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa. The book provides a framework for making better decisions by combining decision analysis with a structured approach to problem solving.

The authors introduce the concept of “decision quality,” which they define as the degree to which a decision meets the following criteria: it is based on a comprehensive analysis of the problem, it identifies the most important decision criteria, it uses a systematic process to evaluate options, it leads to an actionable recommendation, and it takes into account uncertainty and risk.

The authors then describe a nine-step process for making smart choices:

  1. Define the problem
  2. Identify decision criteria
  3. Develop options
  4. Evaluate options
  5. Compare the options
  6. Select an option
  7. Perform a reality check
  8. Take action
  9. Learn from feedback

Throughout the book, the authors provide numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the process and help readers apply it to their own decision-making.

In addition to providing a structured approach to decision making, the authors also discuss various tools and techniques that can be used to make better decisions, such as decision trees, decision matrices, and sensitivity analysis. They also address the role of intuition and creativity in decision making and provide guidance on how to balance the use of structured analysis with more creative approaches.

Overall, “Smart Choices” is a comprehensive guide to making better decisions that provides a structured process for problem solving, tools and techniques for analyzing options, and practical advice for balancing intuition and analysis in decision making.